We have finally reached the Oscars in what seemed like the longest season in the history of award seasons. That said, over the last few months, I have been keeping track of the odds for the Academy Awards and sharing where we could make a little money. These are my final betting odds before the big Academy Awards show this Sunday.
For those who might not be familiar with betting, I will share some things that make it fairly easy to follow. Anything that has (-) minus odds is your favorite within that category, and if no one has the minus odds (Best Picture doesn’t), the movie with the lowest (+) plus odds are the betting favorite. The lower the plus odds, the more Vegas thinks that film or person has a chance of being nominated.
Everything Everywhere All At Once –110
All Quiet on the Western Front +1000
The Banshees of Inisherin +1400
Top Gun: Maverick +1600
The Fabelmans +3000
Avatar: The Way of Water +10000
Triangle of Sadness +20000
Women Talking +20000
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) -1200
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) +600
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) +2200
Todd Field (TÁR) +2000
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) +5000
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) -5000
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1400
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1600
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) +3500
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) +4000
Everything Everywhere seems to be a lock to win all three of these (and more), and I’m not bothering with the possibility of an “upset” because, honestly, they are a waste of our money.
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) -140
Cate Blanchett (TÁR) +100
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) +2500
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) +2800
Ana de Armas (Blonde) +5000
Do you believe in Everything Everywhere All At Once? If so, bet the house on Yeoh, because I’ve changed my pick to Yeoh winning. Blanchett is now a plus-money underdog, and if you think she wins, now is the time to bet on her.
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) -180
Austin Butler (Elvis) +135
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1400
Paul Mescal (Aftersun) +5000
Bill Nighy (Living) +6500
This comes down to preference. If you think Fraser is going to win, you can still win some money; if you think Butler is going to win, you can win some money.
NGNG: Let’s Play Spoiler Picks
Best Supporting Actress
Jame Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +125
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever +130
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) +225
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +2000
Hong Chau (The Whale) +4000
Okay, hear me out. There is money to be made here, no matter how you think this plays out. If you are in the Bassett corner, she’s plus money; in the Jamie Lee Curtis corner, she’s plus money; and even Kerry Condon, she’s even higher plus money. However, if you are going down a path that could possibly make sense (thanks to my friend Kenzie), the path of Stephanie Hsu winning Supporting Actress isn’t that crazy.
Here’s what you do: you find who you think will win and throw money on them, and that can be any of the big three, AND you toss a few dollars on the upset win of Hsu, and either way, you walk away with the money. Sure, there is a chance you walk away empty-handed, but if you select one of the right two (it’s gambling, folks), you can cash in either double or potentially quadruple your amount. These are the type of bets I live for.
Best Production Design
All Quite on the Western Front -700
Will Mandy Walker make history on Oscar Night? Well, she just made history as the first woman to win the ASC award, and that momentum factored with Elvis performing strongly with the Academy, I strongly believe we have an upset on our hands in this category.
The same can be said for Elvis in Production Design. I believe the night will be filled with hearing two films, Everything Everywhere All At Once and Elvis. With Hurwitz likely taking home Best Original Score, I am not sure that Babylon will take home two Oscars. I could be wrong, but again, Elvis played strong to the Academy and it could use that passion to pick up more wins, and if you are in that belief, like me, this is where we make money. There is a world where Elvis could take home five Oscars, including two upsets of Cinematography and Production Design.
Best Original Song
Naatu Naatu (RRR) -500
Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) +400
Holy My Hand (Top Gun Maverick) +600
This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All At Once) +4000
Applause (Tell It Like a Woman) +5000
You can’t make any money on “Naatu Naatu” anymore, with them being massive favorites. I was strongly for “Lift Me Up” before EEAO took home the Music Supervisor Award, but even that can’t stop me from betting on Rihanna. However, I would suggest even throwing a couple bucks on “This is a Life” just because it could win you some money. You can never go wrong by throwing a dart at an insane underdog that is part of a film about to win the most Oscars.
The Oscars air this Sunday, March 12th, at 5 PM (PST). You can find our written predictions here and listen to our latest podcast here, where I also give some additional betting odds throughout the show.