The Academy Awards announced their nominees on January 24, 2023. Since that day, I’ve been monitoring the odds via Draftkings to see how the lines are moving as we get closer and closer to Oscar voting.
As promised, I am back after the big award ceremonies have played out and the odds have shifted up and down over the past week. You saw one Actor finally get ahead of the pack in Best Actor only to lose that momentum the following day, and the Supporting Actress race went from close to being WIDE open now.
For those who might not be familiar with betting, I will share some things that make it fairly easy to follow throughout our journey together this season. So, anything that has (-) minus odds is your favorite within that category, and if no one has the minus odds (Best Picture doesn’t), the movie with the lowest (+) plus odds are the betting favorite. The lower the plus odds, the more Vegas thinks that film or person has a chance of being nominated.
*previous odds in ()
Everything Everywhere All At Once –1200
All Quiet on the Western Front +1000 (+3300)
The Banshees of Inisherin +1200 (+200)
Top Gun: Maverick +1600 (+650)
The Fabelmans +2500 (+900)
Elvis +4000 (+2000)
TÁR +5000 (+4000)
Avatar: The Way of Water +8000 (+3300)
Triangle of Sadness +10000 (+5000)
Women Talking +15000 (+8000)
After sweeping at about every award show over the weekend, Vegas handicapped the Best Picture race as over, locking in Everything Everywhere All At Once at -1200—a huge shift from my last check-in at -225. The film has been the favorite for a while, but this race appears to be over in the eyes of the books. The days of making money on EEAO winning Best Picture are over because, for every dollar you bet, you only win 8 cents.
You may notice that after cleaning up at the BAFTAs, All Quiet on the Western Front has moved into the number two slot for Best Picture. The Banshees of Inisherin has moved into third and Top Gun: Maverick rounding out the top four. There are a few dart throws that you basically might be losing money on, but these odds are high and if you think the Academy might not swing for EEAO, it’s not a bad risk.
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) -1600 (-140)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) +600 (+110)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1400 (+1000)
Todd Field (TÁR) +1600 (+1400)
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) +2500
Honestly, I don’t want to bore you here. Vegas has shifted the odds in an even bigger way when it comes to Best Director. When The Daniels won DGA, the race for the Oscar for Best Director was slammed shut for all of their opponents.
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) (-125) (+110)
Cate Blanchett (TÁR) (-115) (-150)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) +2000 (+1800)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) +2500 (+1600)
Ana de Armas (Blonde) +5000 (+2000)
I mentioned that it would be interesting to see how the dominos fall to see if we would get any more clarity on this race for Best Actress. Cate won BAFTA, Yeoh won SAG, and the race is even tighter than before. Since my last piece, Yeoh has taken a slight lead over Cate, but Vegas is about as confused as we are on who is taking home the Oscar. I will say this is one of the categories that, if you feel confident in either one, money is still to be made.
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) -165 (-140)
Austin Butler (Elvis) +110 (+200)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1200 (+250)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun) +4000 (+3300)
Bill Nighy (Living) +5000 (+2000)
I tweeted before SAG that Austin Butler had finally moved into the front-runner spot according to Vegas after many months of being behind Brendan Fraser. However, Fraser’s odds for victory have risen after his win at SAG. BAFTA shocked almost all of us, awarding Austin Butler Best Actor, but SAG awarding Fraser wasn’t much of a surprise. So now, if you are like me and still think Butler walks away Oscar night with the trophy, get those bets in while you can win money.
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) -5000 (−1000)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1200 (+1000)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1400 (+550)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) +3500 (+2000)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) +3500 (+1400)
Oscar Winner Ke Huy Quan has a nice ring to it. What more can we say?
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) +110 (−275)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +160 (+900)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) +225 (+190)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +1600 (+1400)
Hong Chau (The Whale) +2500 (+1600)
Time for us to dive into the craziest race and Vegas shifts over the last couple of days. Heading into SAG, Bassett widened her lead from -275 to -330, and Jamie Lee Curtis’s odds went from +900 to +1400. Enter SAG, which threw everyone for a loop by announcing that Jamie Lee Curtis had won. While Oscar Central’s Kenzie had this one correctly predicted, the Vegas world shifted massively within 24 hours, making this go from a closed race to a two- or maybe three-nominee battle.
A massive shift like this can happen throughout the award season, but it’s not something that always happens. Going from a -330 favorite to a +110 favorite is a swing that rarely occurs, even in sports (only in the case of injuries). Condon took home the BAFTA, Bassett took home CCA, and Curtis took home SAG, so who wins the Oscar? I have no clue. It’s another interesting spot where money can be made if you feel sure about any of these women taking home the Oscar.
There are a few more guilds (ACE, WGA) coming up over the next week, but we are so close to the end of this Oscar season. The Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 12th and I’ll be back with one more update on the Betting Odds for the Oscars before you need to make your final predictions.