The Academy Awards announced their nominees on January 24, 2023. Since that day, I’ve been monitoring the odds via Draftkings to see how the lines are moving as we get closer and closer to Oscar voting.
While we still have a few big award shows to play out, according to Vegas, we have several categories that seem locked up. This will be my first look with each of you at the odds, and after several of the big precursor winners are announced, I will share another piece to highlight any shifts in the betting market.
For those who might not be familiar with betting, I will share some things that make it fairly easy to follow throughout our journey together this season. So, anything that has (-) minus odds is your favorite within that category, and if no one has the minus odds (Best Picture doesn’t), the movie with the lowest (+) plus odds are the betting favorite. The lower the plus odds, the more Vegas thinks that film or person has a chance of being nominated.
Everything Everywhere All At Once -225
The Banshees of Inisherin +200
Top Gun: Maverick +650
The Fabelmans +900
All Quiet on the Western Front +3300
Avatar: The Way of Water +3300
Triangle of Sadness +5000
Women Talking +8000
Vegas handicapping the Best Picture race is fascinating because as it sits right now, they have this down to a two films race with Everything Everywhere All At Once MASSIVE favorites. At -225, Vegas believes the door on this race is shut closed, which isn’t shocking, but The Banshees of Inisherin is still lingering, meaning the value of +200 is quite sexy.
Again, this is all how you feel the race will play out, so if you like EEAO to take the crown, you would make 44 cents for every dollar you bet on the film. If you like Banshees to win, you would make a $2.20 per dollar bet.
Of course, if you think the Academy will award the big prize to Top Gun: Maverick, The Fabelmans, or Elvis (I WISH), the odds are higher, and your investment return would be more significant.
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) -140
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) +110
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1000
Todd Field (TÁR) +1400
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) +2500
Vegas has the Best Director race between Spielberg and the Daniels, which kind of shocks me considering plenty of people don’t seem as high on Spielberg at the Oscars. That said, if you believe, like me (currently), that Spielberg will win, the +110 odds are worth betting. However, if you think the Daniels are shoe-ins, now is the time to get in on them because if they win anything over the next few weeks, that number will rise massively.
Cate Blanchett (TÁR) -150
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) +110
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) +1600
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) +1800
Ana de Armas (Blonde) +2000
Best Actress is a two-women race between Blanchett and Yeoh without much clarity in the overall picture. This 100% feels like a Blanchett win, but how the domino’s fall over the next few weeks will be quite telling on this race. I can see this line moving in either of these ladies favor in my next piece.
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) -140
Austin Butler (Elvis) +200
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) +250
Bill Nighy (Living) +2000
Paul Mescal (Aftersun) +3300
Vegas has confidence in Brendan Fraser (are we sure our Adriano isn’t making these lines?), but not a tremendous amount like they do with the supporting categories. Sadly, I don’t live in a state where I can bet on the Oscars, but if I did, I would bet loads of money on Austin Butler here. Elvis has shocked the world time and time again throughout this season and has dotted a lot of the I’s and crossed a lot of the T’s to get here, and Butler, at +200, take it to the bank.
I will say, if you think (like I do) that Farrell is the underdog here, and Vegas likes him at +250, it is 100% worth the flier to throw a little money on him.
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) −1000
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) +550
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) +1000
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) +1400
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) +2000
Vegas has locked in Ke Huy Quan and thrown away the key. If you bet $1 on him to win, you would win 10 cents at those odds. You might be rooting for one of the other four guys to win this category, but sorry folks, you might want to put your prayers elsewhere.
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) −275
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) +190
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +900
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) +1400
Hong Chau (The Whale) +1600
While less of a lock than Ke Huy Quan, Bassett has the second-best odds of winning in any of the big six categories. Her dominance has come as a bit of a surprise, but I will say this, like with Austin Butler, if you think Condon has a shot (maybe she wins BAFTA?), now is the time to get her at +190 and take the risk.