The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) released their nominees for this year’s awards and there were quite a few shocks. The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once led the way with five total nominations each, while The Fabelmans, The Woman King, and The Whale all earned two nominations apiece. The SAG Awards, which have previously been on TNT, will now air on Netflix’s YouTube channel on February 26 at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Women Talking

Who will win: The Banshees of Inisherin or Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who was snubbed: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery or Elvis

While Glass Onion could have used this nomination to make itself a true contender for a Best Picture nomination, Elvis could have used a nomination to make itself a true contender for a Best Picture win. With that being said, Babylon and Women Talking both needed this nomination more than any other film. Both campaigns have slowly been on the decline, but this rejuvenates their chances at a Best Picture nomination, even if they didn’t pick up any acting nominations. The Fabelmans nomination was also important to remain a top 5 Oscar contender, but it’s starting to look more and more like it is coming down to The Banshees of Inisherin or Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Both films picked up five total nominations – four acting and an ensemble nomination – which mean they are tied with Shakespeare in Love, Chicago, and Doubt for the most nominations in a single year. For this to happen once in a year is historically impressive, but twice in the same year – how can these not be the frontrunners? At this point, I am leaning toward Everything Everywhere All at Once to win given that it was the only one with a surprise nomination (Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress), but this is going to be a tough race to the very end.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who will win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who was snubbed: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Ana de Armas is the one that won’t go away, and while I do think she will ultimately miss the Oscar in favor of Michelle Williams, she is posing herself as a real threat. Danielle Deadwyler needed this nomination more than anyone, and her showing up is massive for her campaign. Then you have Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, and Viola Davis, who could all win this award. Davis has had a great history at SAG, but I don’t feel comfortable picking her to make a big upset just yet. Yeoh and Blanchett are the top two contenders for the Oscar race right now, and either of them could really use this win to push them out into the lead. I think Yeoh, given the love for Everything Everywhere All At Once, will win.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Adam Sandler, The Hustle

Who will win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Who was snubbed: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

I included Tom Cruise as my snub here because if he at all wanted to be nominated in Best Actor – and he likely couldn’t care less – he needed to be here. He missed in favor of Adam Sandler, who picked up his first SAG nomination after a season of pretty hard campaigning from both him and Netflix. Bill Nighy showing up is as expected; I don’t think he is in contention to win, but he has solidified himself in the number four spot all season. The top trio of Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, and Colin Farrell are likely going to be the top three throughout, and of the three, I would say Fraser needs this win the most. However, I think it comes down to Elvis vs the Irish, and given the fact that The Banshees of Inisherin did so well, and that I don’t think it will win anywhere else, I think Farrell is going to win.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who will win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Who was snubbed: Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and a Women Talking actress

Janelle Monáe has been doing really well for herself when it comes to critical awards, but hasn’t managed to be present in many of the major shows. Her missing here gives me pause on if she actually can follow through with an Oscar nomination. For the Women Talking actresses, I’m wondering what blood sacrifice they have to do to get recognition. Women Talking showing up in the Outstanding Performance by a Cast category keeps it alive, but the lack of any of the cast being nominated was a shock this morning. Jamie Lee Curtis has willed herself into contention this season and I think a nomination here almost solidifies her spot in the Oscar five, but for her co-star Stephanie Hsu, this nomination keeps her campaign alive in a big way. Hong Chau has had a remarkable year in both The Whale and The Menu, but has been spotty when it comes to awards given The Whale is underperforming in a lot of places outside of Fraser. She needed this nomination to stay in the hunt, and while I don’t think she is in the five just yet, she moves up.

Then there were two: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin and Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. I think this award will come down to one of these two, just like I think the Oscar will. On one hand, Condon is in the more heralded movie: it’s one of the highest rated movies of the year, all four major cast members were nominated, and the film picked up a Cast nomination. On the other hand, Angela Bassett has a great narrative, and SAG is known to be a fan of the Black Panther movies as it won Best Cast in 2019. I don’t think there will be anyone sweeping this category which gives me hesitancy to say Angela Bassett is winning here, but I think even if she doesn’t win other places, she will at least win SAG.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Who will win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who was snubbed: Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Eddie Redmayne is more than likely this year’s Jared Leto or Ben Affleck as it is probable that his train stops here with this nomination. Paul Dano, on the other hand, needed a “pick-me-up” to catapult himself back into the race and getting the only nomination for The Fabelmans, one of the Ensemble nominees, keeps him ever so slightly in the conversation. Both Banshees supporting actors were nominated, which confirms what we already knew in that Brendan Gleeson is getting an Oscar nomination but it also looks much better for Barry Keoghan as well. As mentioned earlier, Women Talking picking up a Cast Nomination proves that film still has a heartbeat in this race, but no acting nominations, a trend over this season, remains confusing. However, Ke Huy Quan has been dominating this awards cycle and it isn’t going to stop here. He should win this award fairly easily and go on to win his Oscar soon after.