2023 Oscars: Odds to Win Best Picture

While the Oscar nominations for the 2023 Academy Awards are still a little over two months away from being announced, Draftkings has released their first odds surrounding the ceremony ahead of the precursor nominations released this week. Over the next few months, these numbers will shift in favor of films, actors/actresses, and even directors upon being nominated and/or winning specific industry awards.

Now for those who might not be familiar with betting, I will share some things that make it rarely easy to follow throughout our journey together this season. So, anything that has (-) minus odds is your favorite within that category, and if no one has the minus odds (Best Picture doesn’t), the movie with the lowest (+) plus odds are the betting favorite. The lower the plus odds, the more Vegas thinks that film/person has a chance of being nominated.

Best Picture

The Fabelmans +120
Babylon +500
Everything Everywhere All At Once +600
The Banshees of Inisherin +800
Women Talking +1000
TÁR +1100
She Said +1200
The Woman King +1400
Bardo +1600
Amsterdam +1600
Empire of Light +1600

Alright, I share with you the first 11 and not 10 because the bottom three films have the same odds for that last spot. As it sits right now, Vegas has The Fabelmans as the HEAVY favorite to win Best Picture. Now mind you, this isn’t a surprise to anyone because Spielberg making a movie about his life seems like a no-brainer.

Let’s talk about the next set of films lumped together in Babylon, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and The Banshees of Inisherin. If you look at the Oscars Central Big Board, you will see these three films within each of our team’s top 10-15, but what I took away from this the most was Vegas’s confidence in EEAAO. I think this is one of those I will have to see to believe a thing, but Vegas odds where they have them might make me put them in my top ten. 

The remaining seven are films that I think are vying for nominations, with only Women Talking being a film that I believe can contend for the overall crown. At +1000, if you bet a single dollar for the film to win, it returns $10. I like those odds right now because this line will move down to around +5-600 by the end of December.

TÁR and She Said are two films that seem like shoe-ins that won’t press for the top prize. Bardo (a movie I loved) appears to be a no-brainer for the ten based on director Alejandro González Iñárritu’s history with the Academy, and these odds represent that. Although, I will admit the movie might not be an easy watch for voters.

The remaining three areThe Woman King, Amsterdam, and Empire of Light. I am kind of shocked that their odds are where they are. Obviously, with all three films, you have people with a history with the Academy, so that makes sense there, but Amsterdam and Empire of Light haven’t had the greatest reviews. We can’t discredit that Amsterdam is made by a VERY problematic human being, which hinders its chances (nowadays) to have its name even announced on nomination morning. That said, I would love to see The Woman King stay strong throughout the season and get a Best Picture nomination

Top Gun: Maverick +2000
Thirteen Lives +2000
The Son +2000
White Noise +2200

I wanted to share with you the remaining films under that +2200 threshold on the edge of being within the ten. Top Gun: Maverick being that high shocked me as it’s a film I expect to be nominated, but with these odds being for winners, it makes sense. But being outside the top ten is interesting. The rest of the films make sense due to their history with the Academy.

I will be back next month and throughout award season, sharing with you the latest odds in Vegas surrounding the Oscars race. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the initial Best Picture odds out of Vegas, so comment below with either what you might bet on or where you think Vegas got it wrong.

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