Venice Film Festival Prizes – What Does it Mean for the Oscar Race?

The awards for the 79th Venice Film Festival were just announced, you can check out the winners here for all prizes. Many pundits, award season enthusiasts and Film Twitter all began immediately speculating and updating their Oscar predictions for the ongoing season. What does it all mean for the Oscar Race though?
Here is a brief breakdown by major award.

Volpi Cup for Best Actress – 2022 Winner – Cate Blanchett Tár
From 2010 through 2021, four actresses who won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress have received Oscar nominations for the same performances. Of those four actresses, two pulled off a win at the Oscars.

These are the performances that did manage to snag an Oscar nomination (or win*):
2016 – Emma Stone La La Land*
2018 – Olivia Colman The Favourite*
2020 – Vanessa Kirby Pieces of a Woman
2021 – Penélope Cruz Parallel Mothers

The balance of performances in that eleven year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Cate Blanchett? In recent years, it leans towards a nomination should be on the horizon.

Volpi Cup for Best Actor – 2022 Winner – Colin Farrell The Banshees of Inisherin
From 2010 through 2021, two actors who won the Volpi Cup for Best Actor have received Oscar nominations for the same performances. However, it was a tie between Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix for The Master. Of those two actors, neither pulled off a win at the Oscars.

These are the performances that did manage to snag an Oscar nomination:
2013 – Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix The Master

The balance of performances in that eleven year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Colin Farrell? There isn’t a strong indication his win here means he’ll receive an Oscar nomination, however, it is important to note The Banshees of Inisherin did win the Screenplay award at the festival.

Silver Lion (Best Director) – 2022 Winner – Luca Guadagnino Bones & All
From 2010 through 2021, one director who won the Silver Lion has received Oscar nominations for the same film. That same director did manage to win as well.
This is the only director that did manage to win an Oscar:
2021 – Jane Campion The Power of the Dog

The balance of directors in that eleven year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Luca Guadagnino? There is almost no overlap here, but it does put his name in the very crowded director ring.

Grand Jury Prize – 2022 Winner – Saint Omer
From 2010 through 2021, five films have gone on to receive Oscar nominations in various categories. Only one Grand Jury Prize Winner has gone on to receive a Best Picture nomination.
These are the films that did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (or wins):
2014 – The Look of Silence – nominated for Best Documentary Feature
2015 – Anomalisa – nominated for Best Animated Feature
2016 – Nocturnal Animals – nominated for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon)
2018 – The Favourite – won Best Actress (Olivia Colman); nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actress (Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz), Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Production Design
2021 – The Hand of God – nominated for Best International Feature

The balance of films in that eleven year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for Saint Omer? There is varied history here, but it does seem this indicates the film is well on its way to being in the Oscar conversation.

Golden Lion – 2022 Winner – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
From 2010 through 2021, four films have gone on to receive Oscar nominations in various categories. All four of those Golden Lion Prize Winners have gone on to receive a Best Picture nomination, with two winning.
These are the films that did manage to pick up Oscar nominations (or wins):
2017 – The Shape of Water – won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Score, Best Production Design; nominated Best Actress (Sally Hawkins), Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2018 – Roma – won Best Director, Best International Feature Film, Best Cinematography; nominated Best Picture, Best Actress (Yalitza Aparicio), Best Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2019 – Joker – won Best Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Best Original Score; nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing
2020 – Nomadland – won Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Frances McDormand); nominated Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing

The balance of films in that eleven year window did not manage to break into the Oscar race. What does this mean for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed? The film is only the second documentary to win the top prize at the Venice Film Festival. There is varied history here, but as of late, it does indicate the film is well on its way to being in the Oscar conversation, including the Best Picture race.

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